Learning by Research

Thesis Title: Modelling energy dependencies : from raw materials to global health

Over the past 70 years, human activities have exponentially increased their impact on the biosphere, mainly due to unsustainable resource use. However, the models used in environmental policy-making often overlook certain real-world dynamics in favor of focusing on monetary flows. They fail to adequately represent raw materials, exchanges between regions, and the depletion of higher-quality resources.
Faced with the limitations of existing models, I took part in the construction of the DyMEMDS model (Dynamic Modeling of Energy and Materials Demand and Supply). This model represents the complex interactions between infrastructure (roads, houses, trains, hospitals, factories, etc.), gross domestic product, population, raw materials, energy consumption and environmental impacts.
I analyzed the development trajectories of every country in the world between 1900 and the present day, and then assessed the feasibility of changing trajectories to achieve social and environmental goals by 2050. For example, I created diagrams representing all possible methodologies for allocating responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions between producers and consumers in different countries: https://sankey.theshiftproject.org/. Another result showed that technological progress will soon no longer be able to compensate for the loss in quality of exploited resources, which should result in a long-term increase in the price of certain metals. I also explored the complex interactions between health and the environment by analyzing 49 health systems around the world. I showed that there was an exponential relationship between the energy footprint of healthcare systems and an index of access and quality of care.
This thesis was funded by The Shift Project, a public interest think tank working for a post-carbon economy. During my thesis, I worked to influence the public debate on energy transition and sustainability. I disseminated my research to a variety of audiences through conferences, podcasts, YouTube videos, interviews and radio appearances, reaching scientists, students, NGOs, ministries, public and private companies.

Key Words: Energy transition, raw materials, dynamic modeling, input output tables, health

Doctoral School: ED STEP - Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences
Research laboratory: Institut des Sciences de la Terre (ISTerre - UGA/CNRS/USMB/IRD/UGE)
Thesis supervision: Olivier VIDAL, Gaël GIRAUD and Maxime EFOUI

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